Russia-Ukraine War in 2023: (No) End in Sight

February 24, 2022 is a date the world will never forget as this date reminded the gory massacre of World War I & II. On this date, Russia showed its military might and invaded Ukraine. Ukrainians tearfully bid farewell to 2022 and grimly welcomed 2023. Undeniably, Ukraine has stunned both its friends and foes with its unshakeable resolute and commitment in the Russia-Ukraine war. Its counter-offensive moves are freeing vast areas earlier captured by Russian forces, most recently in Kherson. Russia is miserably failing to achieve its military objectives and the tide is turning in favour of Ukraine. It is futile to expect that Russia will accept this seemingly defeating scenario with a plain face. The stakes are still high for Ukraine as the war has moved in a new period i.e. 2023. Russia is using diversified strategies as visible from November missile attacks against Kyiv and other cities and damage caused to oil and gas supplies to Europe.

In his New Year address, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a rebellious posture, exploded that “moral and historical righteousness is on our side.” On the contrary, Ukrainian President  Volodymyr Zelensky, in his New Year address, reminded his nation that the year 2022 has begun with fear over the Russian war and ended with hope for a glorious victory. It was declared, “We have overcome doubts, despair and fear.”

Much has been said and written about the Russia-Ukraine war in the year 2022. It is high time to assess what the year 2023 will bring for this war-a jubilant victory for Ukraine or a shameless defeat for Russia.

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For Ukraine, almost one whole year has elapsed and no end to this war is in sight. On the contrary, the worst of winter is in sight. Russia has demonstrated its full might by large air attacks, firing cruise missiles and deadly drones at various soft targets in Kyiv and other surrounding cities. This cruelty reflects Moscow’s lack of military strategies, diminishing willpower and exhausted resources. As observed by Melinda Haring, the outgoing deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, “Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t have much game left in terms of his military ability in Ukraine. His supply lines are exhausted. His men are exhausted. He’s trying desperately to defend the land that he’s taken.”

Uncertainty is the order of the day. Nothing can be said with certainty. Any anticipation or prediction about the aftermath of this war is next to impossible. However, some factors that are likely to have a profound impact on the war and its outcome.

Ukraine’s unquenchable need for more artillery: While Ukraine’s need for more and more artillery is endless, the world (read US) does not have endless supplies. The USA has so far provided over one million rounds of artillery shells and more than 115,000 mortar rounds to Ukraine, besides advanced deliveries for the systems like HIMARS mobile rocket launcher and NASAMS air defense system. To keep pace with the massive Russian missile firing and drone barrages, Ukraine needs an uninterrupted supply of basic ammunition, which the US maintains at stunningly low levels. One US defense expert said to NYT that Ukraine is firing artillery under the misleading assumption that the US has unlimited stockpiles of ammunition for them.

Highly motivated and disciplined army: A bigger challenge for both Russia and Ukraine is the deployment of a highly motivated and disciplined army. Although Ukraine has an advantage as far as the number of troops is concerned, arming them with the latest lethal equipment remains a formidable challenge. Russia, on the other hand, has also realised the need of mobilising its troops. The fresh addition of tens of thousands of Russian troops presents a potential threat to Ukraine. It will remain a crucial factor for Ukraine’s war-winning strategy.

All the best to Ukraine. The end is surely in sight.    

How the West will respond to the war? An important factor to consider in the year 2023 is how the West will respond to the Russia – Ukraine war. So far, the Western response to the war is lukewarm and timid. It is hardly a reflection of the Western response to the Gulf Crises in 1990-91 when Iraq invaded Kuwait. There requires an undeniable readiness of the West to equip Ukraine with the latest and technologically advanced surface and air offensive skills. So far, the West has taken a calculated approach to arm Ukraine with easy-to-use weapons, which is no match for highly sophisticated deadly Russian artillery. A definitive factor in 2023 will be the accessibility of high-tech missiles and other weaponry to Ukraine to outweigh Russian might.

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China’s impartiality: China’s impartiality has so far benefited Ukraine more than it hurt Russia. But how long China will remain impartial is uncertain. In response to the trade embargo, President Putin has indicated that Moscow will explore other emerging markets for its mammoth energy exports. China’s trade volume with Russia has jumped in the first quarter by more than 28% from that of last year. Sooner or later, it may outpace the EU as the latter is the biggest trading partner of Russia. According to trade economist Dr. Rebecca Harding, trade restrictions have forced the EU to diversify its energy supplies. A paradigm shift in the Chinese mindset may win Russia fortunes.

Dominant Leadership: Russia-Ukraine war is a litmus test for at least four global leaders Joe Biden, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. The present-day war was broken out on the order of President Putin. President Zelenskyy has shown his unparalleled leadership skills by motivating and uniting his nation. President Joe Biden demonstrated his charisma in bringing the entire West and EU on one page for restrictions against Russia. So far, China’s successful impartiality is attributable to President Xi Jinping.  All the four leaders are under tremendous pressure to deliver. Dominant leadership skills will be the final factor for the success or failure of the peaceful resolution of the war.

Conclusion

The year 2022 began with the war grossly in favour of Russia. However, it came to an end when the war is mostly in a balanced format. It is crystal clear that Russia cannot win this war on its own terms. Similarly, Ukraine cannot lose this war in the face of zeal, commitment and courage demonstrated by its citizens. As the war has entered 2023, the world has reasons to believe that Ukraine will show its mettle through the indomitable courage and bravery it has shown so far and the moral, political and military assistance offered by the West. All the best to Ukraine. The end is surely in sight.